Bitcoin's $124K Price Prediction: Current 30/30 BTC Indicators Remain Neutral, Easing Market Fears

Bitcoin’s $124K Price Prediction: Current 30/30 BTC Indicators Remain Neutral, Easing Market Fears

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Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s recent peak of $124,500 does not appear to be the pinnacle of the market cycle, as all 30 peak indicators remain neutral.

  • Recent price losses indicate that new investors are capitulating, while seasoned holders seem unfazed.

  • As long as Bitcoin stays above the 20-week EMA, its trajectory toward $150,000 remains promising.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) retreat from its all-time highs has raised concerns about whether the market has peaked for 2025. However, analyst Merlijn The Trader views the so-called “$124K top” as mere “noise.”

30/30 Indicators Suggest More Upside Potential

In a recent social media post, Merlijn emphasized that none of Bitcoin’s 30 widely monitored peak indicators have turned negative yet.

Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle tops have corresponded with multiple “overheating” signals across various renowned on-chain tools. For instance, the Puell Multiple, which rises when miners generate excessively high revenues, currently stands at 1.39, well below the 2.2 level that signals danger before price peaks.

Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s price to actual capital inflows, remains in neutral territory, not displaying the overheated extremes observed in previous market tops. This indicates that there is still substantial room for upward movement.

Unfazed Experienced Holders

On-chain data offers a supportive view for Bitcoin’s bullish potential, revealing that a capitulation phase is currently in motion. Newer Bitcoin investors, those holding BTC for less than a month, are reportedly facing average unrealized losses of approximately -3.50% and are subsequently selling their holdings, as indicated by analyst CrazzyBlockk.

In contrast, the broader Short-Term Holder (STH) group, which has held Bitcoin for one to six months, has enjoyed an aggregate unrealized gain of +4.50%. CrazzyBlockk notes:

“This is a bullish structural development. The market is purging its weakest hands, transferring their BTC to holders with a lower cost basis and higher conviction. This shakeout, while painful for recent top buyers, is exactly the type of event that builds a strong support base for the next significant move higher.”

$70 Million in BTC Longs Liquidated

On-chain analyst Amr Taha further argues that a recovery may be on the horizon, following a significant $70 million liquidation of leveraged long positions as Bitcoin’s price dipped below $111,000 on Binance.

The open interest (OI) saw a considerable drop following this liquidation event, with Binance’s Cumulative Net Taker Volume decreasing by nearly $1 billion. This reflects aggressive selling and capitulation among late buyers.

The upcoming liquidity cluster is anticipated to be around $117,000–$118,000, which could serve as a price magnet if Bitcoin shows signs of recovery in the days ahead. Below this, there appears to be limited support until around $105,000.

Amr Taha remarked:

“With overleveraged buyers removed and open interest reset, the market is structurally healthier. The absence of a short squeeze suggests latent upside potential, especially if BTC reclaims key levels and triggers short covering.”

Can Bitcoin Price Reach $100,000 Again?

Examining the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s recent pullback appears less like a definitive market top and more like a standard bull market correction. Since the start of 2023, BTC has frequently recorded sharp pullbacks between 20% and 30% before resuming its upward trajectory.

The latest decline of roughly 12% is relatively shallow and still sits above the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave), which is close to $108,000. This level has historically acted as dynamic support throughout the rally.

A rebound from the 20-week EMA could pave the way for Bitcoin to challenge its all-time high of over $125,500, maintaining the potential for an upward trajectory toward $150,000 or even higher by the end of 2025.

However, if Bitcoin falls below the 20-week EMA, it might face a deeper correction toward the 50-week EMA (the red wave), situated near $95,300. Historically, this has marked local bottoms during prior bull market pullbacks.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.